Another week has rolled around quickly and my Dolphins are looking to keep up the pressure on the only undefeated team in the league. at 4-1 we are the only team within one win of the league leaders but this week sees us take on a tough match-up against a resurgent 4th and Goal.
Waiver Wire:
For the second week in a row there has been some action on the waiver wire for the Dolphins, adding players who may make more of a contribution down the line rather than this week.
Add - Jameis Winston (QB)
This one was technically a late waiver move in week 5 but as it did not come into play that week I have included it here. Winston has had an up and down season so far this year. A strong week 1 was followed by a disastrous week 2, the same patter followed in weeks 3 and 4 before a decidedly average performance in week 5.
There are a few key things to consider at this stage though, firstly, Winston has been without his number one RB since the first quarter of week 2, when things went downhill fast. Sure Sims was OK but Doug Martin adds an entirely different layer of dynamism to the Tampa Bay offence. Martin will be back for Tampa's next game, after their week 6 bye, and will take a large share of the load off of Winston freeing him up to do what he does best on a football field.
I mentioned the bye just now and that neatly brings us on to point two. This bye week leads into four relatively good games for a QB to face. San Francisco, Oakland, Atlanta and Chicago all have some question marks in their pass defence, Atlanta are arguably the best of this bunch, and if Winston can protect the ball and make plays he has the opportunity to put up 20+ points each week.
And that brings us on to point 3, protecting the ball. Week 5 was the first week that Winston did not turn the ball over. Keeping the ball safe was a massive problem for Winston in weeks 2-4 (sans Martin) where he lead the Bucs to 6 TDs but turned the ball over an unacceptable 9 times (7 INTs 2 FF). No turnovers in week 5 was a good thing, if he continues it through week 7 it will be better.
Drop - Cairo Santos (K)
A tough move to make this one. Cairo didn't do anything wrong, he just had a badly positioned bye week. Matt Bryant became available and with that high powered Atlanta offence he will have a lot of opportunities to put up points. Kansa will still generate opportunities for Santos but when the number 2 kicker in the league falls into your lap you have to make way for him and carrying two kickers seemed redundant at this stage of the season.
Add - Allen Hurns (WR)
Allen was on my draft board at the start of the year, so when he became available I knew that I had to add him. He has had a quiet season so far, with only one TD to his name. Coming off of their Bye week Jacksonville travel to Chicago to face a beaten up Bears secondary. If Hurns is going to get the TDs flowing this is the game to start it, their are question marks over the health of two of the CBs in an already depleted Chicago defence, and next week Hurns will face off against an Oakland D that loves to give up big points to WRs. A no brainer right?
Drop - Dennis Pitta (TE)
Another tough call, Pitta has been decent, if unspectacular, this season on his return from two hip injuries. The only reason to make this move is that Brian Hoyer is set to be the starting QB for Chicago for the rest of this season. This should mean big points for Zach Miller and his short to intermediate routes. Pitta could return ahead of the Chicago bye week as I will need another TE but as of right now there wasn't a spot for him on the team.
Projected score JDD 89.24 / 4AG 92.54
Another close game, which will probably come down to a big day or two on either side. So let's take a look at the teams.
QB - Derek Carr (Proj. 13.04)
Derek and the Raiders welcome a Kansas City defence that has so far struggled to live up to expectations in 2016. Don't get me wrong there is still talent on this team but I get the feeling that the name strikes more fear into opponents than the actions right now. Marcus Peters returning to Oakland has been the buzz online this week and I expect him to match-up against Amari Cooper for the majority of the game. Of course Derek and co have far more weapons than that and you would expect them to be fully utilised as Oakland look to go 5-1 themselves.
A 13 point projection seems low for Carr especially when you consider 4 out of 5 weeks he has had 20+ points and averages 20+ a week even when you include his sub par week.
Opponent - Tom Brady (Proj. 17.74) - Yep I get to face the Tom Brady revenge tour, week two. They're up against a Cincinnati team struggling for an identity this season. Brady and co will be looking to win this one and my only hope is that they decide to run the ball through Blount more than last week, taking some of the points away from Brady.
RB 1 & 2 - DeMarco Murray & Devonta Freeman (Proj. 28.60)
DeMarco did everything except score a TD against Miami last week, this week he faces a Browns team that are in year one of a rebuild. He is the centerpiece of a Tennessee offence that could tee off on a weak Cleveland team this week and you would expect big points from him.
Alongside him is Devonta Freeman, part of the best one, two RB punch in the NFL right now. He faces a Seattle team that is starting to get things going this season. He is projected to pick up 9+ points which may be a little low considering his combined 30.70 points against the Panthers and Broncos over the past two weeks.
Opponent - Eddie Lacy & Jordan Howard (Proj. 27.50) - Gary claimed Jordan Howard ahead of me on the waiver wire, I ended up with Theo Riddick as my backup instead. The Bears' round five pick has been a revelation since becoming their number one back and he will look to continue this against Jacksonville. The Jags haven't been brilliant against the run so far but on their day they can cause problems for the run game. Eddie Lacy has a tough game against Dallas, if Aaron Rodgers is as good as he used to be then it should open up the game for Lacy a bit, unfortunately Rodgers hasn't quite been himself so far this season. Let's hope it continues another week.
WR 1 & 2 - DeAndre Hopkins & Michael Crabtree (Proj. 12.80)
NFL.com really don't like Crabtree and Hopkins this week. Crabtree has been a guaranteed 3 catches and 10 points every week so far this season and has something good going with Carr, but that is only worth 6.10 points to them. Hopkins and Osweiler finally connected for a TD in garbage time last week against the top defence of Minnesota after two awful weeks. He faces the much friendlier prospect of the Indianapolis secondary this week and you would like to think he could put up 10+ points again this week.
Opponent - Brandon Marshall & Antonio Brown (Proj. 22.20) - Somehow Brown is only down for 8.90 points this week against the wet paper bag that is the Miami Defence. Brandon Marshall is projected to get 13+ points against Arizona on Monday Night... flip these points around and I think you have a more accurate prediction for these two players, although both could easily top 10 points this week.
TE - Zach Miller (Proj. 10.10)
Opponent - Jordan Reed (Proj 0.00) - Reed is in the concussion protocol and not expected to take the field on Sunday. He had a tough match-up against Philly regardless but it would probably be best for him to sit out this week.
Flex - Allen Hurns, WR (Proj. 11.70) OR Alshon Jeffery, WR (Proj. 13.40)
Decisions, decisions. This is a tough one, both reliant on TDs, one a number one WR facing a better secondary with an average QB, the other a number two receiver against a beat up secondary with an average QB. Right now I am leaning towards Hurns as he has a TD and I think the Chicago secondary could give up more TD opportunities than Jacksonville. Then again... Jacksonville did fall apart against Indy in the 4th quarter before their bye week... hmmmmm...
Opponent - Will Fuller, WR (Proj. 11.10) - Fuller is battling a hamstring injury after a quiet showing against Minnesota. The rookie has blown hot and cold this season, and with more tape on him his opponents are forcing him to make adjustments. He is still a decent choice for the flex position and around 10 points is a reasonable expectation if he is on a hot week.
K - Matt Bryant (Proj. 7.00)
Once again Bryant gets no love from the so called "experts". If Atlanta put up points, he puts up points. Simple.
Opponent - Steven Hauschka (Proj. 8.00) - Second week in a row that both kickers are involved in the same game. Second week in a row that my opponent is predicted to have the better kicker Hauschka is a long way down the list of kickers (18th) and shouldn't even be in the conversation with Bryant this year. Any other year he would be expected to be ahead... But not this year.
Defence - LA Rams (Proj. 6.00)
I considered picking up the Tennessee defence for one week against Cleveland this time out but I stuck with LA after Detroit appeared to lose yet another RB to injury. This time Theo Riddick who had a big first quarter last week before getting very quiet. He hasn't trained all week and seems doubtful for Sunday. LA will be hoping to shake off their injuries and get back to their strong defensive play after a tough outing against Buffalo last week. I just hope Jeff Fisher doesn't sink them with a bad coaching call again.
Opponent - Arizona Cardinals (Proj. 6.00) - This should be a good match-up for Gary. New York have put up a total of 33 points in three losses over their last three games (that's an awful lot of 3s). If they can shut down Brandon Marshall Arizona should come away with a W. Of course doing so could undermine Gary's team as a whole, it's never fun when Fantasy Football throws something like that at you.
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